Chapter 86, The Plan Revealed
St. Petersburg had received the news from the Far East, and Nicholas II was pushed to the brink of fury.
The cause and effect of the matter no longer mattered. In any case, the outbreak of the Russo-Japanese conflict in the Far East was seen by Nicholas II as an act of provocation by the Japanese.
The old scores with the Japanese Government had not been settled, and now the Japanese dared to provoke again, which naturally could not be tolerated.
Had it not been for the consideration that the Siberian Railway had not yet opened and logistical pressures constrained military action, Nicholas II would have loved to exterminate Japan right then and there.
Of course, this was just wishful thinking. Only a fool would rashly provoke a war in such a complex international situation.
The Tsarist Government was indeed preparing to expand eastward, but when to do so, and under what circumstances, required careful consideration.
"Learn from the trenches, grow wiser from the losses."
In recent decades, the Russian Empire had not been short of losses in wars. Having sustained many losses, the Tsarist Government had evolved as well.
Now moving south, now advancing east, the strategic objectives seemed fickle, but wasn't this also a form of political wisdom?
Against the backdrop of a struggle for supremacy between Britannia and Shinra, the Russian Empire, as the world's third-strongest nation, had not the slightest joy of a fisherman benefiting from the troubled waters, only profound trepidation.
There was no alternative. To vie for world hegemony, the Russian Empire was too weak; to fish in troubled waters and profit as a fisherman would, the Russian Empire was too strong.
Despite good relations with Austria, mistrust and distrust were still rife between the two governments. If the Vienna Government was skeptical of Russia, the British were even more so.
In a sense, the better the Russian Empire performed, the more it was likely to arouse the apprehensions of the two hegemons.
Nicholas II might have been somewhat indecisive, but he was certainly no fool. With the old ministers from Alexander III still in place, the Tsarist Government had yet to plunge into the abyss.
Mixing into the struggle for hegemony between Shinra and Britannia could indeed be very profitable in the short term. Once the two emerged with a victor, it would be Russia's turn to have bad luck.
Given the Russian Empire's size, either hegemon would regard it with deep misgivings, and suppression was inevitable.
Yet, not taking sides was even less acceptable. The Russian Empire's strength could influence the outcome of this hegemonic struggle to a certain extent. Neither Vienna nor London could tolerate such an unstable element.
This situation was naturally not what the Tsarist Government wanted. The best outcome would be for Britannia and Shinra to both suffer injuries, allowing the Russian Empire to rise opportunistically.
Clearly, this was impossible. Both Shinra and Britain had their advantages, and it was almost impossible to expect both to perish together in their confrontation.
From the perspective of the Tsarist Government, there was only the choice to settle for the next best thing, to reap as many benefits as possible before the outbreak of the hegemonic struggle and to strengthen one's power.
Whether moving south towards India or advancing into East Asia, the completion of any of these strategic objectives would see Russia reborn, once again at the pinnacle of the world.
Regrettably, accomplishing either of these two strategies was exceedingly difficult. The Tsarist Government had already made attempts, all ending in failure.
During the Anglo-Russian War over a decade ago, the Tsarist Government had tested the strength of Britannia. Centered around the 'Lobster Soldiers' and a continual stream of Indian cannon fodder, even the hardy beasts would tremble in fear.
Of course, this was not a reason for the Tsarist Government to give up on India. Although the enemy's army was numerous, their combat prowess was not impressive; such easy targets were always favored by the military side.
What truly made the Tsarist Government wary was the formidable national power of the Great Britain Empire. As long as the London Government did not give up, they could endure the struggle indefinitely.
After all, if the British had anything to spare in their colonies, it was their population; even at a five to one, ten to one exchange rate, the British Government could afford the losses.
Five hundred million in population base, that's the United Kingdom's biggest confidence. Let the time drag on, and Russia would be the first to break.
Even with Shinra's support, it's useless, allies are all unreliable when it comes to national interests, no one can guarantee the Vienna Government wouldn't stab them in the back at a crucial moment.
The southward strategy was blocked, and the eastward strategy was just as tough. The enemy's strength wasn't much, but transportation was a nightmare.
Years ago, during the multi-nation siege of the Far Eastern Empire, the Tsarist Government felt the pressure of logistics. They couldn't even supply logistics internally for a few tens of thousands of troops and had to procure supplies from Japan, which was closer.
Once the Eastward plan was formally implemented, it would be no small matter of tens of thousands. Without millions of troops, the "Yellow Russia Plan" would be a pipe dream.
Logistics for tens of thousands of troops could be procured locally, but for millions, no one dared to take that liability.
Even if the Tsarist Government was willing to purchase, the Japanese wouldn't sell. After all, once Russia's eastward strategy was implemented, Russia would have to face Japan.
As long as the Tsarist Government wanted to go east, the only two independent states in the Far East would stand against the Russian Empire.
It's not scary to have many enemies; the Tsarist Government wasn't easily frightened. The crux of the problem still lay in logistics.
To say nothing of the Siberian Railway not yet being in service, even if it were operational. Relying on a single-track railway to solve the logistics issues of a million-strong army was ludicrous.
If an immediate solution wasn't feasible, the only option left was to nibble away on it gradually. Unfortunately, the Tsarist Government had just taken a step when they were sniped by the Japanese.
What was more troublesome was that with the Russian Empire's current force deployment in the Far East, they couldn't do anything about the Japanese, and might even be threatened by them.
Neither side was a great feast, but none could be devoured in short order, and the greedy Tsarist Government naturally didn't want to give up either.
Outsiders thought the Tsarist Government's strategy was indecisive, but the Russians themselves didn't think so. It could also be termed a "flexible diplomatic strategy."
Just waiting for a major shift in international politics, Russia could take the opportunity to move southwards or eastwards, or even initiate both strategies at the same time.
The moment the Tsarist Government was waiting for was a hegemonic war between Britannia and Shinra. As long as they could survive until the two big BOSSes started fighting, Russia would be sky-high and free as birds.
Obviously, as a favored child of heaven, Nicholas II was not one to tolerate things. The Russian Empire had suffered setbacks in previous conflicts, and he was the first to become impatient.
Prime Minister Sergei Witte: "Your Majesty, please calm your anger. We will settle accounts with the Japanese sooner or later. It's unnecessary to be aggravated by a nation that is doomed to perish. Your journey continues at My Virtual Library Empire
At first glance, it may seem we've suffered a setback. Yet, from another perspective, a bad situation can also turn into a good one.
The Vienna Government has always opposed our eastward expansion. The Empire's recent expansion eastward has already created a rift in the relation between the two countries.
This opportunity is an ideal time to heal. We can use it to send out a signal to the outside world, telling the Austrians that our eastward strategy has been thwarted.
If necessary, we can even pretend to give up the Far East to mislead the outside world, as a cover for our eastward strategy.
The conflict with the Japanese in the Far East does not need to be urgently dealt with right now. We can wait until the Siberian Railway is operational, then consider our options."
Face is always less important than inner benefits, and Russia can be practical when needed. For national interests, Sergei Witte didn't mind backing down first.
Destroying Japan isn't just lip service. Soon after Nicholas II ascended to the throne, the Russian Government devised a detailed plan to eliminate Japan.
Of course, plans are always just plans. Any country has a plethora of both reliable and unreliable strategic plans.
In a sense, the strategic plans in the think tanks of various countries are a competition of imagination. It's not about feasibility; it's about who has the most creativity.
Not to say that achieving all of it, but any nation that could accomplish one-tenth would undoubtedly become the ruler of Earth.
Compared to the insane projects of conquering the world or landing on the sun, wiping out Japan is barely worth mentioning. Of all the strategic plans of the Russian Empire, this one is definitely among the most feasible.
Having listened to the Prime Minister's persuasion, Nicholas II felt much better. After all, he was a monarch of stature and dignity, and could not lower himself to quarrel with a "dead country."
"Hmm!"
"Let them enjoy themselves for a few more days, then we'll settle both new and old scores with them."
It was apparent that Nicholas II still harbored anger in his heart, and it was likely that as soon as the time was right, he would seek retribution against the Japanese.
However, that was no longer important, since those present shared a similar disdain for the Japanese. They refrained from acting only because their own strength did not permit it.
Once the conditions matured, everyone was not averse to giving the Japanese a taste of the "Roar of the Bear." In terms of holding grudges, Russians were certainly among the top in the world.
Foreign Minister Mikhailovich: "Your Majesty, we've discovered the true reason the Americans are helping us build the Siberian Railway.
After thoroughly analyzing the intelligence we've gathered from various sources, we can confirm that the British are lurking in the shadows.
The Foreign Ministry believes this is a ploy by the British to alleviate military pressures in the Indian region, by intentionally leading us to expand eastward.
This also explains why the Americans insisted on building a single-track rather than a double-track railway."
Those who played politics were all crafty. The efficiency of the Tsarist government might have been lacking, but the capability of its senior officials was undoubtedly high.
The Siberian Railway had already been under construction for years, yet the Tsarist government had not given up on unearth the Americans' true motives.
As it turned out, persistence was effective. No matter how secretively the governments of England and America operated, they always left trace indicators when making deals.
In the short term, the Russians might not spot an issue, but over time, as they came to their senses, anomalies would become noticeable.
Since this wasn't a criminal investigation, specific evidence wasn't needed. As long as it could be proven that the British had the motive and the capability to orchestrate from the shadows, then it must be the doing of the British government.
Nicholas II slammed the table abruptly and said coldly, "So it is indeed. In the face of national interests, friendship truly counts for nothing.
But that doesn't matter, we can consider it mutual exploitation. We needed to build the Siberian Railway anyway, and with the help of the Americans, we've managed to save some expense.
As for the subsequent costs, there's no need to pay them, as I believe the British have already footed the bill for us."
Although his words sounded casual, his tense expression revealed that Nicholas II was anything but calm inside.
Discovering this linked to England meant the upcoming eastward expansion plan needed even more careful consideration.
Nicholas II did not believe that the intentions of the British were that simple; they would not spend so much effort merely to prompt the Russian Empire to expand eastward.
Even though the Siberian Railway was a single-track, its transportation capacity was very limited, but there was no rule that a single-track could not be upgraded to a double-track.
With one railway already in place, adding a second line alongside it would be much easier than before, at least transportation would no longer be an issue.
Once the railway was upgraded, the transportation problem that constrained the Russian Empire's eastward expansion would be solved easily.
As a Bear willing to commit its full national strength, it would not be stopped by two independent countries in the Far East unless they could unite.
Clearly, this was impossible. Since the first shots of the Jiawu War, it was clear that relations between the two nations could not be good.
As long as the Tsarist government employed diplomatic strategies and expanded rhythmically, there would be no issues.
If Britain could hold back the Russian Army in well-established India, it did not mean they had the capability to thwart them in the Far East.
Upon deeper consideration, Nicholas II felt there was a problem, and the British certainly didn't have a genuine interest in helping them accomplish the "Yellow Russian Plan."
The conflict between England and Russia was long-standing, and backstabbing each other was the norm, not bolstering the enemy's strength.
Where exactly the problem lay, Nicholas II was unclear. Regardless, in facing the issues of the Far East, the Tsarist government suddenly became cautious.
…
The events that took place in St. Petersburg were naturally unbeknownst to the Japanese government. It wasn't for lack of effort by the intelligence organization, but rather that the inherent obstacles were too great for successful infiltration.
The Japanese government's intelligence gathering on the Russian Empire was limited to newspapers, radio broadcasts, and tavern rumors.
Bribing informants and delving deep into the Tsarist government to gather intelligence was wishful thinking and lacked feasibility.
It wasn't that the Tsarist government's security was high; on the contrary, it was one of the worst worldwide, akin to a large sieve.
The Japanese intelligence organization's lack of notable achievements was rooted in one word—poverty. Without money in their pockets, they had no means to operate.
Since the outbreak of Japanese-Russian tensions, and the subsequent rising tensions in the Far Eastern region, the Japanese government had been rattled.
After all, they were up against the "European steamroller," the Russian Empire, a genuine top-tier world power. Despite not having kept up with the times in recent decades, it was no match for the nascent Japan.
The Philippine War served as an excellent reference; Spain, the weakest of the great powers, was still capable of waging a fight thousands of miles away and holding its own.
The more formidable Russian Empire was, without a doubt, an even bigger threat. In short, the Japanese government's upper echelons had no confidence in facing the Russians.
This wasn't cowardice; everyone was simply following their instincts.
Despite propaganda to the public about the "Japanese-Spanish War breaking the myth of white invincibility," everyone on the inside knew the truth—it was a loss-making endeavor.
The only true gain was that the Japanese Navy received an opportunity to rapidly develop.
Unfortunately, this opportunity was not as grand as it seemed, as the excessive number of warships meant the Japanese government had been worried about how to sustain such a navy since after Jiawu.
With a costly precedent, the Japanese government's upper echelons were always apprehensive about engaging in war with European countries.
Win the war, and there were fears of intervention by the Continental Alliance, possibly preventing them from gaining the desired spoils; a loss would be worse, potentially setting Japan back to its pre-Meiji Restoration state or even risking becoming a colony.
Regardless of the outcome, Japan was doomed to be the loser if war broke out. Since the conclusion was so tragic, why fight at all?
It wasn't yet time for militarism to rule, and the Civilian Political Group led by Ito Hirobumi still firmly controlled the reigns of power.
Aside from a pronounced martial culture, overall, Japan was still a normal country.
Except for the younger, middle and lower-ranking military officers who were spirited and commanding, the government's upper echelons had no interest in war, at least not in the short term.