Holy Roman Empire

With the crack of a gunshot, the already chaotic scene became utterly uncontrollable.

"The Russians have killed someone!"

Someone shouted, and it immediately detonated the crowd. The already furious protesters were fully ignited.

The biggest characteristic of radicalism, which earned it the "radical" label, is that decisions are often made on a hot head without weighing the pros and cons.

No matter the location, everyone's mind was filled with "Kill all the Russians, blood for blood!"

It wasn't just a thought; they took concrete action. The protesting crowd toppled the gates and walls, charging into the interior of the embassy.

Faced with the swarming crowd, the Russian Army guards fought valiantly, but two fists were no match for four, and even guns were of no use.

After all, this was the embassy district. The security was primarily the responsibility of the Japanese Government, and the guards' weapons were limited to dealing with petty thieves; there were no heavy armaments.

With people already breaching the premises, what happened next was unspeakable. Meanwhile, the embassies of various countries nearby had already grabbed their cameras and were wildly snapping pictures of the chaotic scene.

The only regret was that the distance was too far, and the photographs had no quality to speak of; they merely showed the crowd charging at the Russian Embassy.

Not far away, the police responsible for maintaining order were now terrified. Causing a ruckus outside the embassy and breaking in were completely different concepts.

Judging from the level of chaos on the scene, it was clear that those who had broken in were not rational at all—if they were to do anything irrational, the consequences would be unimaginable.

"What should we do now, chief?"

The middle-aged police chief glared coldly at his subordinate, who was nearly scared out of his wits, and said, "What do we do?

Remember, Muraki. There were rioters trying to storm the British Embassy just now, and we have been blocking them. As for what happened at the Russian Embassy, we didn't see a thing."

After speaking, the middle-aged man began swinging his fists, hitting and kicking his subordinates as if simulating the aftermath of a mob charge.

They weren't the only ones making such decisions. To avoid taking the blame, the nearby duty police officers all ended up with injuries.

They had no choice; the situation was out of control and not something these lower ranks could stop. Getting involved now, they were unsure if they could rein in the situation, but they would certainly be dragged into it.

Those with rich social experience knew to take care of themselves first. Other issues were for higher-ups to worry about; after all, it was the superiors' orders that permitted the protesters to approach the Russian Embassy district.

With such a big incident, someone had to come forward and take the fall, and this "pot" was not something just anyone could carry.

As lower ranks, their job was to duck out of the way. As long as they weren't directly involved, the bigwigs wouldn't bother with them.

...

Inside the government office building, Prime Minister Okuma Shigenobu, who had just finished afternoon tea, was staring blankly at a pile of documents when he suddenly received the shocking news of "mobs charging at the Russian Embassy district."

"Is the situation under control?"

"Are there any casualties within the Russian Embassy?"

...

Protest is one thing, but storming an embassy district is another. Ordinary citizens may not understand the severity of the situation, but Okuma Shigenobu did.

Since Japan aimed to "depart Asia for Europe," it was necessary to understand the political games of Europeans, such as the universally recognized "international law."

Charging the Russian Embassy district might look like a mere conflict between Japan and Russia, but it was not.

A mishandling of the situation could lead Japan to face criticism from the entire international community. It would be a severe blow to the Japanese Government, sanctions aside, just the condemnation alone would be a lot to handle.

In this context, whether there were casualties within the Russian Embassy became vitally important.

If it was only property damage, worst-case scenario they'd pay a sum of money; but if people were injured, Russia would certainly not let it go easily.

The current Russian Empire was no isolated entity, with the Russian-Austrian Alliance behind it, and they were also a major member of the Continental Alliance.

The Tsarist Government had no reason not to involve allies when a reason was delivered right to their door. International politics do not cherish individual heroism; the real power lies in overwhelming strength with numbers.

A staff member replied frantically, "The scene is completely out of control, the security division has already requested military assistance, and we still do not know if there are any casualties within the Russian Embassy."

Hearing this outcome, Okuma Shigenobu plopped down into his chair. The situation was out of control to the point that the military had to intervene, and as for casualties—could anyone really be sure?

The problem now was not how many people had died but how many people in the Russian Embassy were still alive. In any case, a diplomatic disaster was on its way.

...

The advent of telegraphs brought humanity closer together. Trouble had only just started in Japan during the day, and by evening Vienna had received the news.

As for containing the news, it was a mere thought. After all, the telegraph companies at that time were in the hands of the great powers, and there was no need to pander to the Japanese Government. Explore new worlds at My Virtual Library Empire

Furthermore, cutting off telegraph communication was useless. The incident took place in the embassy district, not far from various international embassies, so with many witnesses present, it was simply impossible to keep a lid on it.

Surely not a cover-up through murder?

If staff from all the embassies were harmed, the treatment that the Japanese Government would receive would certainly not be better than that of their unfortunate neighbor during the Boxer Rebellion.

Besides the uncertainty surrounding the specifics of the casualties in the Russian Embassy, other details were carried worldwide with each telegraph message.

Looking at the telegram in hand, Franz fell deep into thought. He had heard of the Russo-Japanese War, but a Japanese mob attacking an embassy? This was new to him.

Was it a change in history, or had someone deliberately obscured the truth, or perhaps the incident was deemed too minor to make waves?

Franz was beyond the age of intense curiosity, with no interest in delving into the complexities of the Russo-Japanese conflict.

"Has the Japanese Overt Faction been severely suppressed recently?"

A few hundred meters away, getting a rough view of the situation on site was already good; the shooting from the shadows was, of course, unknown.

Unaware of any interference, the incident at the Russian Embassy was promptly branded as "the mob charging the Russian Embassy district."

In pure Japan-Russia conflict, the only ones capable of such foolish acts, besides the warmongering lunatics in the Japanese military, were none.

From Franz's personal experience, extreme events like these usually indicated that the Japanese Army Overt Faction was being oppressed, and they had resorted to drastic measures to turn the situation around.

Similar events had happened many times in the original timeline. For example, when the government wanted to cut military spending one year, the disgruntled Japanese military directly staged a coup...

Frederick: "True, over the past few years, the Japanese Government has consistently been cutting the military budget. The military budget, from its peak, constituted 84.7% of fiscal revenue, and has been compressed to the present 46.2%.

It is said that the Japanese Government is preparing to continue reducing military spending, aiming to bring military expenditure down to about 35% of fiscal revenue.

However, what does this have to do with the mob attacking the Russian Embassy district? Surely dissatisfaction over the reduction in the percentage of the military budget can't be a reason to..."

Military expenditure constituting a high percentage of fiscal revenue is characteristic of the era. The more economically backward a country is, the higher the proportion of military spending in its fiscal expenditures.

Countries that can keep their military budgets within 40% are basically those that have embarked on industrialization; those that can keep it within 25% are considered developed countries.

From the perspective of the military budget ratio, Japan's economy must have developed well in recent years, otherwise, the proportion could not have come down.

After all, maintaining an army is very expensive. With the development of military technology, the daily maintenance cost of the military has been constantly rising.

With the military establishment remaining constant, annual military expenditures will only increase, never decrease. To compress the proportion in the fiscal budget, the only way is for fiscal revenue to increase at a rate faster than the rise in military maintenance costs.

In the era of the gold standard, coinage tax revenue was far from as significant as in later times, and could not possibly become the mainstay of fiscal income. An increase in government's fiscal revenue was mainly due to tax revenue growth brought by the dividends of economic development.

"In other countries, this might not happen, but in Japan, it's a different story. We can't judge this country by ordinary standards.

The traditional ideology of bushido combined with militaristic thought has put the Japanese military on a radical path of no return from the start.

Of course, this could be one of the many factors leading to the assault on the Russian Embassy. The direct catalyst, however, is most likely the recent conflict in the Far East.

Faced with the Russian Empire, the Japanese Government does not have sufficient confidence. For the sake of domestic and overall development, the Japanese Government can make concessions, but that doesn't mean radical civilian groups will also consider the bigger picture.

In this world, there are too many people who act without thinking. When nationalism and extremism are thrown into the mix, it becomes even crazier.

As long as someone stirs the pot, there's nothing they wouldn't dare to do. Not to mention assaulting the Russian Embassy—if they were to massacre all the Russian Embassy staff, it wouldn't be impossible."

With their original timeline as a reference, Franz felt that what was normal for him was a complete shock to Frederick's worldview.

"Attacking an embassy district" was shocking enough, but if the embassy staff were to be massacred, then there's nothing left to say; just go to war directly.

No major country could accept this kind of provocation, especially the hot-tempered Russians.

After all, being accustomed to stormy times, apart from initial disbelief, Frederick quickly recovered and slowly said:

"If they really killed all the Russian Embassy staff, then a Russo-Japanese War would be unavoidable. However, since the Siberian Railway is not yet operational, the Russians probably won't take action immediately.

Judging by the progress of the Siberian Railway, the main line is expected to open next year, and the branch lines will take about three to five years.

If nothing goes wrong, the Russo-Japanese War is likely to break out within the next five to ten years. So, should we..."

Before Frederick could finish his thought, Franz interrupted: "This is only considering the best time for war from the Russian side, but the outbreak of war is never decided unilaterally.

If you were Emperor Meiji, would you wait for the Russians to be ready to attack before reacting passively?"

There was no way around it; this was a misunderstanding in perception. The disparity in power between Japan and Russia was vast; if it wasn't for transportation limitations, Japan, even multiplied by three or five, wouldn't be enough to fight the Russians.

If one considers the racial discrimination mindset, the assessment of the power of both sides has to be even greater.

The Philippine War is a benchmark; Spain could fight Japan to a stalemate with a distant expedition, and Japan would have been defeated long ago if distance hadn't limited the deployment of power.

Regarding the issue of Spain using French mercenaries, everyone simply ignored it. Europe has a tradition of employing mercenaries, and the ability to recruit mercenaries for combat is also a manifestation of strength.

In many people's eyes, the disparity in strength was just too vast. For the weaker party to initiate war was to court death.

Conversely, being dragged into a conflict could garner international sympathy, inviting major powers to intervene and mediate. Despite both being defeated, the treatment enjoyed would be starkly different.

The former might end in death and the destruction of their nation; the latter, though defeated, could still have a glimmer of hope.

After all, the international community would not stand by and watch the Russians continue to expand. Intervention was inevitable.

...

Just as Franz and his son were considering how to profit from the Russo-Japanese War, the Tsarist Government also received dire news from the Far East.

However, the intelligence they received was not from their own embassy, but forwarded by the Vienna Government.

Well, allies will do each other such favors.

If it wasn't for the repeated confirmation that the Embassy in Tokyo had lost contact, Nicholas II would have thought he was being fooled on April Fool's Day.

A tiny Japan dared to provoke the great Russian Empire again and again—this was a clear sign that they thought their sword had lost its edge.

Upon receiving the news, Nicholas II called an emergency high-level government meeting that same night. After such an occurrence, if they did not retaliate, how could the Russian Empire continue to hold its head high on the international stage?

Prime Minister Sergei Witte, "Your Majesty, we must respond forcefully to the provocations of the Japanese to show them that the Russian Empire is not to be trifled with.

However, the Siberian Railway is not yet operational, and our military forces in the Far Eastern region are limited, making it difficult to deliver a heavy blow to Japan.

Rather than a tepid response, it might be better to wait. Once we are ready, we can annihilate Japan and soothe our indignation."

Count Sergei Witte was a Prime Minister of the rational faction. Righteous indignation had its place, but launching a military operation in anger was absolutely forbidden.

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. In recent years, the Russian Empire has suffered enough from ill-tempered military endeavors. Now, lessons had to be learned.

Deep down, Sergei Witte had already made up his mind. No matter how the Japanese provoked, he was determined to wait until the Siberian Railway was fully operational.

It wasn't just Sergei Witte who was rational—the current high-level Tsarist officials were mostly from the era of Alexander III, all of them being of the rational faction.

Director of the Orthodox Church Administration, Nobynonushev, "The Prime Minister is correct; now is indeed not the time for military action.

Against a clown like Japan, if we do not strike, we must strike hard and decisively to truly deter others.

Considering that Japan is an island country, to annihilate them with our current naval strength is clearly insufficient.

On this matter, we can follow the example of the Austrians, and first develop a comprehensive twenty-year development plan, then annihilate the Japanese monkeys once we are fully prepared."

It was obvious that Nobynonushev, too, deeply understood the philosophy of patience, proposing a twenty-year plan to annihilate Japan right off the bat.

With the vast resources of the Russian Empire, if they were truly to commit to a twenty-year plan with full dedication, there would be no question—Japan would be utterly doomed.

Not to mention Japan, even the current Great Britain Empire might not be able to contain an industrialized Russian Empire once fully developed.