Chapter 207: Chapter 208 Evaluation from Zulong
Heifu said eloquently: "After the last war against Chu, I believe the county lieutenant also understood that Chu is not comparable to Wei and Yan. Chu has an area of 5,000 miles, hundreds of thousands of people with spears, and has a four-generation feud with Qin. Now facing the danger of national destruction, the nobles raise orphans and the elderly to increase their numbers, the people do their best to farm to increase their accumulation, the soldiers repair their weapons to increase their sharpness, and the craftsmen build cities and dredge ponds to increase their solidity. The King of Chu carried the grass and humbled his ministers, and the general Xiang Yan gave courtesy to the dead soldiers. It can be said that the king and his ministers are of one mind, and the upper and lower forces are of one mind, just like when Gou Jian was trapped in Kuaiji..."
"So I guess that the king intends to use General Wang Jian as the commander to attack Chu. If he does not send troops, it will be fine. If he sends troops, the Qin soldiers will go all out. Otherwise, they will not be able to easily defeat the sad soldiers of Chu!"
Li You was still puzzled: "That being said, how do you know that the number of troops proposed by General Wang to the king is 600,000?"
Even in the court of Xianyang, there were probably no more than 20 people who knew this specific number.
In addition to the people present, such as the King of Qin, Wang Jian, Li Xin, Wei Liao, Xia Wuqie, and others, only Li Si, Feng Wuze, and other important officials who were involved in the plan to destroy Chu knew about it.
As the only bright spot in the first attack on Chu, Li You was valued by the King of Qin, who decided to let him participate in the march to discuss it, so he knew about it. Although Feng Jing was the son of Feng Wuze, he was not aware of it because he did not reach a high level.
So when the two heard that Hei Fu reported the number of 600,000, they were all surprised.
Hei Fu bowed his head: "It was deduced by the subordinates."
"Deduced?"
Feng Jing was a little unconvinced: "The Zuo Bingcao Shi is in Nanjun, far away from the government, how can he deduce so accurately out of thin air?"
Hei Fu nodded and smiled: "Yes."
The sky had gradually darkened, and the oil lamps in the hall of the County Wei Mansion had been lit. All the servants were driven out. In front of Li You and Feng Jing, Hei Fu began his "deduction" seriously.
"The Art of War says that when an army of 100,000 is raised and marched a thousand miles away, the expenses of the people and the public will cost thousands of gold a day. There will be 700,000 families who are in turmoil inside and outside, idle on the road, and unable to work..."
"In the time of Wu Sun Tzu, eight families were neighbors, and one person from each family joined the army, and seven families were needed to support him. Therefore, when an army of 100,000 was raised, there were 700,000 families who did not farm."
In the Spring and Autumn Period, productivity was low, but the daily consumption of food and fodder for people and horses would not decrease, so the conscription ratio was also low. Based on the calculation that a family has 5 to 8 people, eight families have 40 to 64 people, and the conscription rate of Wu is only 1.5%-2.5%.
"Today, Qin uses Shang Yang's method to encourage farming. The yield per acre is much higher than in ancient times, so about five families can send a soldier to a thousand miles away. A few months ago, I heard the county lieutenant sigh that Qin has 3 million households... So a rough calculation shows that the empty Qin soldiers are only 600,000!"
Qin has occupied most of the world, with more than 3 million households, each with 5 to 8 people, and a population of 15 million to 20 million. If 600,000 people are sent, the conscription rate is 3%-4%.
Too little? But the fact is that in the past 2,000 years, the conscription ratio of all dynasties will not be much higher than this number. Heifu had read an article in his previous life, saying that during World War II, when Germany had the strongest military force, the conscription rate was between 11.5% and 14.7%. The total population of Germany at that time was about 80 million, and with the vassal army, it was only a little over 10 million. With the technological level of fertilizers and factories in modern times, the army that a society can support is no more than that, not to mention the Qin Dynasty.
600,000, this is the limit of Qin's conscription. If there are more, it will greatly affect the production in the rear, the people will not be able to make a living, and the soldiers on the front line will be pale. When Zhao State was in the Battle of Changping, the conscription rate once reached the standard of 10%, and the result was that Zhao's economy collapsed, and the grain of the whole country could not feed the front-line soldiers. It was impossible to borrow grain from neighboring countries, so it could only fight quickly. This was a bloody lesson.
"Therefore, Chu cannot be attacked without 600,000 soldiers!"
After the deduction, a round of applause sounded in the room. It was Li You who was praising: "Good Heifu, your calculations are almost the same as the original intention of General Wang!"
Feng Jing also changed his previous disapproval and sighed at Heifu's deduction ability. He no longer dared to underestimate this ordinary black-faced soldier. He stepped aside and bowed:
"I have been studying the art of war, and I have never understood the "calculation" and "knowing the enemy and knowing yourself" mentioned above. Today, I heard the deduction of Zuo Bingcao Shi, and I know what "calculation" and "knowing yourself" are! It seems that there is a difference between actual combat and non-actual combat. There are still many things for me to learn!"
Heifu hurriedly returned the courtesy humbly, and muttered in his heart: "Knowing the result and then reversing the process, it all depends on how I blow my mouth, of course I can't be wrong..."
Since Heifu had revealed the truth, Li You no longer had to hide it, so he told Heifu and Feng Jing the whole story of what happened in Xianyang last month.
"You two don't know, as early as last year, the king asked General Wang Jian and General Li Xin for advice. General Wang Jian insisted that 600,000 troops were needed to attack Chu, while General Li Xin said that 200,000 troops would be enough. So General Li Xin was appointed as the commander to attack Chu with 200,000 troops, and General Wang Jian retired to Pinyang."
"As a result, two months ago, Generals Li Xin and Meng Tian were defeated by Xiang Yan. The Chu army entered the two walls and killed seven of our captains. Our army was defeated and retreated to Shangcai and Yangcheng. Because the first snow fell, the two countries stopped fighting, but did not make peace. There are still 100,000 troops on the front line, and the Chu people are also ready to move. They may continue to march westward at any time. The war between Qin and Chu is not over yet!"
Li You still has lingering fears when talking about this matter. If Heifu was not reliable, he would probably be the eighth captain to die in battle.
"General Li Xin really lost his army and humiliated the country. When the king heard about the battle, he was furious and demoted Generals Li and Meng. He also went to Pinyang to meet General Xie Wang and asked General Wang to be the commander..."
Even Li You did not know the details of the conversation and how the King of Qin asked Wang Jian to come. He only knew that Wang Jian finally agreed to be the commander, but his request remained unchanged: "It must be 600,000 people!"
Hei Fu sighed secretly when he heard this. It was impossible for Wang Jian not to come out, because he would not forget the fate of Bai Qi, the Marquis of Wu'an, more than 30 years ago...
Although the upper echelons of the Qin State had completed the "initial plan" steps of the war, it was impossible for 600,000 people to be assembled at once, and the food to feed these people had to be slowly stored in the granary. So the top leaders of Qin decided not to rush to send troops this time, but to wait until the autumn harvest when the grain warehouses were full before attacking Chu. They first sent Li You and others to various counties. After the busy spring farming season, they immediately started the conscription work for this year, and trained for five or six months before going to the front line!
After listening to Li You's description of Qin's strategy, Hei Fu felt relieved. He was indeed Wang Jian. He had been "stable" since before the war.
Indeed, Qin now has an absolute advantage in terms of national strength, population, troops, and system. Being impatient will give others the opportunity to counterattack on the high ground. Stay steady and don't waste time. Slowly advance and pull down the tower. Even if the Chu general Xiang Yan is a genius, he can't reverse the situation.
So Li You rushed to Nanjun as soon as his injury healed, just to prepare early and start conscription. After the last war, he was full of confidence in the Nanjun soldiers.
"Just as Heifu calculated, five households support one soldier. There are 150,000 households in Nanjun. During the off-season, at least 30,000 soldiers can be recruited to the front line!"
According to this calculation, each of the 18 counties in Nanjun will have to send at least 1,000 soldiers, and the populous counties such as Jiangling and Yan will have to send 3,000 to 5,000 soldiers. It is really a collective mobilization. It is not easy to gather people, not to mention training and other matters. It is really not an easy task.
Li You smiled and said, "The soldiers will be recruited after the spring plowing. Since you two are new here, you should go to the house arranged for you to rest first."
Heifu and Feng Jing stood up to agree, but Li You stopped Heifu again and said that he had something to ask him.
So Feng Jing bowed to Li You and said goodbye, nodded to Heifu, and came down the hall.
When he walked to the door, looking at his silk shoes inlaid with pearls and jade, and Heifu's gray cloth shoes, Feng Jing couldn't help but sigh: "I thought it was unnecessary for Li You to personally recommend a border soldier. Today I know that this person is indeed an extraordinary person! No wonder Li You trusts him so much!"
"Father and uncle are right. When we go to the county, we should not underestimate the soldiers in the state!"
...
In the hall, Heifu asked with concern: "I didn't have time to ask just now. Is the county lieutenant's injury serious?"
"On the way to Nanjun, the wound occasionally hurts, but it's no longer a big deal." Li You smiled and said: "The king ordered the imperial physician Xia Gong to treat my injury. Xia Gong's medical skills are superb, and the medicine really works."
Hearing the name Xia Wuqi, Heifu roughly guessed what Li You was going to say to him.
Sure enough, Li You pointed at Heifu and scolded him with a smile: "Heifu, you are so good. When you were bandaging my wounds in Chu, you only said that you had a friendship with the doctor Chen Wujiu, and asked him to submit a suggestion to the imperial physician Xia Gong! I didn't take it seriously at the time, but you know, on the day when I first entered the palace to meet the king after my injury, I mentioned your contribution in helping me break through, and Xia Wuji immediately fell to the ground, pleaded guilty, and then presented a silk book to the king in person!" Heifu secretly scolded: "It's been almost a year since this matter, and there is no news at all. I thought the matter was over! It turns out that old man Xia has been waiting for the best time! What a smart person!" Li You also said: "Yes, the silk book is your suggestion to set up medical and emergency rescue personnel so that the soldiers can fight with peace of mind. After listening to it, I was very shocked, and even the king praised it! Do you know how the king evaluates you?" "What does the king say?" Hei Fu stood up from his knees involuntarily. He was actually a little bit expectant. This was the evaluation from Zulong.
Li You bowed to the north with respect and said, "The king said, among the thorn oaks, are there any wood?"